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Feb 06

US Dollar Index, Gold and Crude Oil Outlook

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US Dollar Index, Gold and OilUS Dollar Index, Gold and  Crude Oil Outlook.


The US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index is in a primary up-trend, having broken through 80.5, and offers a target of 90.0. Reversal below the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 76.5.

Gold

A strengthening dollar usually signals gold weakness, but there are two factors that mitigate against this: continuing low interest rates (higher rates increase the attractiveness of alternative investments); and rising concern over sovereign debt, causing a flight to the (relative) safety of both gold and the dollar. Breakout above the declining trendline would signal a test of the January high at $1165, while reversal below support at $1080 signal a primary down-trend. A Momentum Oscillator (21-day) peak below zero would also warn of a trend reversal.New Target 1.025

Crude Oil

Crude retreating below the rising (green) trendline warns of trend weakness — and failure of primary support at $72 signal a primary down-trend. Recovery above $76, however, indicates another test of resistance at $80. New Target $68.

Top Oil Producing Countries 1960-2006
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