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The euro is in a strong primary down-trend. Talk of Greece being rescued by France and Germany may help to stem the decline at the $1.36 support level. Expect a test of the declining (orange) trendline. Breakout above the declining trendline on Momentum Oscillator (63-day) may provide advance warning of a trend change.
MONTHLY PIVOT ALERT: Support level of 1.3624 was broken today. When the monthly S1 is broken – we can look for a possible drop to the monthly S2 @ 1.3385.
The [R3] or the most extreme high trading range is 1.3860.
The [R2] or the extreme high trading range is 1.3777.
The [R1] or the high trading range is 1.3697.
The [P] or pivot point is 1.3614.
The [S1] or the low trading range is 1.3534.
The [S2] or the extreme low trading range is 1.3451.
The [S3] or the most extreme low trading range is 1.3371.
The Dollar is undergoing a correction against the yen, after making a new high in early January. Recovery above 93.00 would confirm a primary up-trend. Look for early warning from
Momentum Oscillator (63-day) crossing above the declining (purple) trendline.
The [R3] or the most extreme high trading range is 91.22.
The [R2] or the extreme high trading range is 90.81.
The [R1] or the high trading range is 90.39.
The [P] or pivot point is 89.98.
The [S1] or the low trading range is 89.56.
The [S2] or the extreme low trading range is 89.15.
The [S3] or the most extreme low trading range is 88.73.
The market is stalling. It may be wise to exit this trade. Market is holding below the 0.8733 level. 4xGenie Action: ==> Maintain short position. Price projection of 0.8655 has been reached. Stop at 0.9083. Wave C could drop down to 0.8300. NOTE: This is a very strong bearish sign with the lower pivot band falling lower and with today’s close below the lower pivot band. The CCI is below -100. This currency pair is oversold at this time.
The Aussie dollar is headed for a test of primary support against the greenback. Breakout below $0.8733 would signal a primary down-trend while respect would indicate another test of $0.8300. Bearish divergence on Momentum Oscillator (21-day) favors a down-trend.
The US Dollar Index is in a primary up-trend, having broken through 80.5, and offers a target of 90.0. Reversal below the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 76.5.
Gold
A strengthening dollar usually signals gold weakness, but there are two factors that mitigate against this: continuing low interest rates (higher rates increase the attractiveness of alternative investments); and rising concern over sovereign debt, causing a flight to the (relative) safety of both gold and the dollar. Breakout above the declining trendline would signal a test of the January high at $1165, while reversal below support at $1080 signal a primary down-trend. A Momentum Oscillator (21-day) peak below zero would also warn of a trend reversal.New Target 1.025
Crude Oil
Crude retreating below the rising (green) trendline warns of trend weakness — and failure of primary support at $72 signal a primary down-trend. Recovery above $76, however, indicates another test of resistance at $80. New Target $68.
FOREX OUTLOOK for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GOLD, CRUDE OIL and US DOLLAR INDEX.
Gold
Gold retreated below short-term support at $1120 after breaking the rising trendline on the price chart and on Momentum Oscillator (5-day). Expect a test of primary support at $1080. Reversal above $1140 is unlikely, but would signal an advance to $1220.
Crude Oil
Crude retreated below the rising (green) trendline, signaling trend weakness. Also, the long-term Momentum Oscillator (13-week) displays a large bearish divergence, warning of a reversal. Failure of primary support at $72 would confirm.
Euro – EUR/USD
The primary cause of dollar strength is the euro, which broke through support at $1.42 — signaling the start of a primary down-trend. The Momentum strengthens the reversal signal. The initial target for the decline is $1.38.
Momentum is continuing downward at the present time.
Next Day Trading Session:
If the next day’s close is above 1.4449 then that could be a sign that the current downward momentum is reversing.
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD.
The Aussie dollar is also weakening against the greenback after respecting resistance at $0.93. It is too early to tell whether this will resolve into a test of primary support at $0.875 or a re-test of resistance at $0.93. Upward breakout now appears unlikely, but would signal an advance to $0.98.
Current Day Trading Session:
Momentum is continuing downward at the present time.
Next Day Trading Session:
If the next day’s close is above 0.9340 then that could be a sign that the current downward momentum is reversing.
US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index is testing resistance at 78.5. Breakout would signal reversal to a primary up-trend — and advance to 80. Momentum Oscillator (5-day) also favors an up-trend. Reversal below support at 76.6 is unlikely, but would warn of test of primary support at 74.
On Jan-17-2010 a candlestick formation confirmed a sell signal. 4xGenie Action: ==> SELL @ 1.2506 Stop at 1.2625. Wave 3 could drop down to 1.2195 or to 1.2076. Today’s candlestick appears in the yellow shaded area of the chart. This reflects strong consolidation here!
The [R3] or the most extreme high trading range is 1.2570.
The [R2] or the extreme high trading range is 1.2554.
The [R1] or the high trading range is 1.2535.
The [P] or pivot point is 1.2519.
The [S1] or the low trading range is 1.2500.
The [S2] or the extreme low trading range is 1.2484.
The [S3] or the most extreme low trading range is 1.2465.
Next Day Alternate Stops for Monday Jan 18, 2010
The red line to the right on your chart is an extreme support or resistence level for the next trading day.
A good alternative stop is one which is placed just beyond this extreme support/resistance level.
In this particular case if the price rises above 1.2554 then that would show momentum against 4xGenie’s short position and that would be a break out to the upside.
Please Note: These support/resistance levels are calculated by using the previous day’s trading range. Normal volatility may cause a breakout of this value once every 4 or 5 days when prices consolidate.
Current Day Trading Session:
No signs of downward momentum at this time.
Next Day Trading Session:
If the next day’s close is below 1.2448 then that could be a sign that new downward momentum is beginning.
On Jan-12-2010 a candlestick formation confirmed a sell signal. A sell signal was also confirmed when this currency pair closed below 147.33 on Jan-05-2010. 4xGenie Action: ==> SELL @ 147.30. Stop at 151.20. Wave 5 could drop down to 143.30 or to 136.86. Today’s candlestick appears in the yellow shaded area of the chart. This reflects strong consolidation here!
The 20 day moving average of the daily trading range is 171 Pips and the 60 day moving average of the daily trading range is 212 Pips. This shows that volatility has decreased in the short term. The percentage of downdays when the open/high ratio is less than 25% is 52.52 percent. This means that if this currency pair does not rise more than 42 Pips from the opening price then there is a 52.52 percent chance that this will be an downday.
The [R3] or the most extreme high trading range is 149.5367.
The [R2] or the extreme high trading range is 149.0333.
The [S2] or the extreme low trading range is 147.2733.
The [S3] or the most extreme low trading range is 146.8967.
Next Day Alternate Stops for Tuesday Jan 12, 2010
The red line to the right on your chart is an extreme support or resistence level for the next trading day.
A good alternative stop is one which is placed just beyond this extreme support/resistance level.
In this particular case if the price rises above 149.03 then that would show momentum against 4xGenie’s short position and that would be a break out to the upside.
Please Note: These support/resistance levels are calculated by using the previous day’s trading range. Normal volatility may cause a breakout of this value once every 4 or 5 days when prices consolidate.
Current Day Trading Session:
Downward momentum has ended.
Next Day Trading Session:
If the next day’s close is below 147.30 then that could be a sign that new downward momentum is beginning.
On Dec-29-2009 a candlestick formation confirmed a buy signal. 4xGenie Action: ==> Buy @ 1.0236. Stop at 1.0085. Wave 3 could rise up to 1.0500 or to 1.0700. The support level of 1.0329 was broken when prices closed below the bottom pitchfork line. The market has dropped out of the current trading channel. NOTE: A consolidation of price movement or a price correction may be underway.
Next Day Trading Ranges for Thursday Dec 31, 2009
The 20 day moving average of the daily trading range is 97 Pips, and the 60 day moving average of the daily trading range is 100 Pips. This shows that volatility has decreased in the short term. The percentage of updays when the open/low ratio is less than 25% is 49.30 percent. This means that if this Currency Pair does not drop more than 24 Pips from the opening price ( 5pm EST) then there is a 49.30 percent chance that this will be an upday.
The [R3] or the most extreme high trading range is 1.0432.
The [R2] or the extreme high trading range is 1.0402.
The [R1] or the high trading range is 1.0349.
The [P] or pivot point is 1.0319.
The [S1] or the low trading range is 1.0266.
The [S2] or the extreme low trading range is 1.0236.
The [S3] or the most extreme low trading range is 1.0183.
Next Day Alternate Stops for Thursday Dec 31, 2009
The red line to the right on your chart is an extreme support or resistence level for the next trading day.
A good alternative stop is one which is placed just beyond this extreme support/resistance level.
In this particular case if the price drops below 1.0136 then that would show momentum against 4xGenie,s long position and that would be a break out to the downside.
Please Note: These support/resistance levels are calculated by using the previous day’s trading range. Normal volatility may cause a breakout of this value once every 4 or 5 days when prices consolidate.
Current Day Trading Session:
No signs of upward momentum at this time.
Next Day Trading Session:
If the next day’s close is above 1.0296 then that could be a sign that new upward momentum is beginning.
The euro broke through resistance at $1.50 before retracing to test the new support level. Respect would offer a short-term target of $1.53. Momentum holding above zero confirms a strong up-trend; the bearish divergence so far indicates consolidation, but reversal below zero (while unlikely) would signal a correction. Expect a test of $1.60 in the medium to long-term.
4xGenie Action: ==> Remain out of this market! Today’s candlestick appears
in the yellow shaded area of the chart. This reflects strong consolidation here! A divergence in the MACD indicator has been found. When this appears on a 5th wave this could be a sign of exhaustion. The current upward trend may soon correct or end. The CCI has crossed below 100. Look for falling prices soon.
There has been no signal to enter the market at this time. The support level of 1.5686 was broken when prices closed below the bottom pitchfork line. The currency pair has dropped out of the current trading channel. Today’s candlestick appears in the yellow shaded area of the chart. This reflects strong consolidation here!
Next Day Trading Ranges for Tuesday Nov 17, 2009
The 20 day moving average of the daily trading range is 146 Pips and the 60 day moving average of the daily trading range is 153 Pips. This shows that volatility has decreased in the short term. The percentage of updays when the open/low ratio is less than 25% is 38.57 percent. This means that if this Currency Pair does not drop more than 37 Pips from the opening price then there is a 38.57 percent chance that this will be an upday.
The [R3] or the most extreme high trading range is 1.5726.
The [R2] or the extreme high trading range is 1.5712.
The [R1] or the high trading range is 1.5694.
The [P] or pivot point is 1.5680.
The [S1] or the low trading range is 1.5662.
The [S2] or the extreme low trading range is 1.5648.
The [S3] or the most extreme low trading range is 1.5630.
Current Day Trading Session:
No signs of upward momentum at this time.
Next Day Trading Session:
If the next day’s close is above 1.5654(Cancel Limit Order) then that could be a sign that new upward momentum is beginning.
EUR/CAD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis As euro retreated after early rebound from 1.5231 to 1.5995, suggesting further consolidation within 1.5186-1.6096 would take place and although pullback to 1.5523/25
EUR/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis Although the single currency rose to as high as 1.6001 this Monday, as the currency pair has retreated after faltering below resistance at 1.6096, suggesting further consolidation would take place, however, …
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